Chinese carbon fiber Industry chain analysis:

1）The carbon fiber industry chain is relatively long, with the midstream being the core link.

The carbon fiber industry chain is relatively long, covering the complete manufacturing process from crude oil raw materials to terminal applications. From the perspective of the preparation process, upstream companies first produce propylene from fossil fuels such as petroleum, coal, and natural gas, and then obtain acrylonitrile after ammonia oxidation. The acrylonitrile is polymerized and spun to produce raw silk, and then pre-oxidized, low-temperature/high-temperature Carbon fiber is obtained through process steps such as carbonization. Subsequently, carbon fiber can be made into carbon fiber fabric, carbon fiber prepreg, carbon fiber composite parts, etc. Carbon fiber is mainly used in wind power, sports and leisure, aerospace and other fields. From the perspective of the entire industry chain, the midstream of the industry chain is the core link, and the thresholds for technology, capital, and equipment are relatively high.

Upstream: Polyacrylonitrile-based has become the mainstream of the carbon fiber market

The upstream of carbon fiber belongs to the petrochemical industry. Propylene is first produced from fossil fuels such as petroleum, coal, and natural gas, and acrylonitrile is obtained after ammonia oxidation. After acrylonitrile is polymerized and spun, polyacrylonitrile (PAN) raw fibers are obtained. Carbon fiber can be divided into polyacrylonitrile (PAN) based, asphalt based, viscose based, etc. according to the type of raw fiber. Among them, PAN-based carbon fiber has quickly occupied the market due to its simple production process, rich sources of raw materials and superior tensile strength. Its global share currently exceeds 90%, becoming the mainstream of the carbon fiber market. Viscose-based and pitch-based carbon fibers have single uses and limited output. Viscose-based carbon fibers have been basically discontinued due to low productivity, weak mechanical properties, and limited applications, and may completely withdraw from the carbon fiber market.

Midstream: core link in the industrial chain, with high technical barriers

Raw silk is the key to producing high-quality carbon fiber, and its cost accounts for approximately 51% of the cost of carbon fiber production. Generally speaking, the industry believes that 90% of the performance of carbon fiber depends on the original filament. The strength of carbon fiber significantly depends on the microstructure and density of the original filament. Poor quality of the original filament (such as surface holes, deposits, scratches, and single filaments) Interbonds, etc.) are difficult to eliminate in subsequent processing, so it is particularly important for manufacturers to have high-quality raw silk production technology. At present, carbon fiber manufacturers mostly reduce their raw material costs by deploying carbon fiber raw filament production, so they all have the production capacity of carbon fiber raw filaments. However, the carbon fiber raw filaments produced by the vast majority of carbon fiber and composite material manufacturers are only produced for their own use and are rarely sold externally.

From the perspective of tow specifications, small tow carbon fiber has excellent mechanical properties, but the cost is relatively high. It is mostly used in the fields of national defense and aerospace. In contrast, although the performance of large-tow carbon fiber is not as good as that of small-tow carbon fiber, it is more cost-effective in terms of price and is mostly used in industrial fields. The production technology of large-tow carbon fiber is relatively difficult, which is mainly reflected in the uniformity and wool control of multiple links such as raw yarn, prepreg and carbonization. In the past, the production technology of large-tow carbon fiber was mainly in the hands of several large companies in the United States, Germany, and Japan. Now, domestic large-tow carbon fiber manufacturers are striving for growth and breakthroughs, and constantly narrowing the gap with foreign companies.

Downstream: Carbon fiber applications are blooming in many areas, with national characteristics

At present, carbon fiber has been used in wind power blades, sports and leisure, aerospace, pressure vessels, carbon-carbon composite materials, transportation construction, ocean and other fields. It is an indispensable and important strategic material for the development of national defense industry and national economy. From the perspective of market structure, compared with the world, the application distribution of carbon fiber in my country has its own characteristics. Globally, wind power blades still occupy the absolute mainstream. The top three fields with global carbon fiber application demand in 2022 are wind power blades (26%), sports and leisure (18%), and aerospace (15%). In my country, the proportion of carbon fiber applications in the sports and leisure field is higher than that in the world, which is the ballast stone for my country's carbon fiber demand. At the same time, the demand for carbon fiber applications in aerospace accounts for only 10%, which is lower than the global 15%. The main reason is that domestic carbon fiber production technology is still growing, and small tow carbon fibers with strength above T800 cannot be supplied in batches. In the future, with the expansion of my country's carbon fiber in high-end fields such as aerospace, the carbon fiber demand structure will move towards high-end.